Migration can change where Muslims live and how large a share of a country’s population they make up. A person who moves across a border changes two national counts while remaining part of the same worldwide population. That distinction helps explain why a country such as Canada can see rapid growth in its Muslim population and why researchers examine different causes when they explain change worldwide. A Canadian census release from 2022 and a study of migration scenarios for Europe show how to read those changes. Pew’s country and regional estimates Statistics Canada’s October 2022 census release Pew’s 2017 European scenarios Pew’s explanation of migration and natural increase
What a regional growth rate measures
In Pew Research Center’s estimates for 2010 to 2020, North America’s Muslim population grew by 52 percent to 5.9 million. The Muslim population in sub-Saharan Africa grew by 34 percent to 369 million. North America recorded the higher rate of growth, while sub-Saharan Africa added far more people. The North American percentage is calculated from a much smaller starting population. The comparison matters when a headline about the fastest-growing region is read as a claim about where most Muslims live. Pew’s country and regional estimates
The Asia-Pacific region had the largest number of Muslims in 2020. Pew estimates that Indonesia alone had roughly 240 million Muslims, about 12 percent of the worldwide total. Indonesia, Pakistan and India together were home to around one third of the world’s Muslims. A group can be large in a country where it forms a minority, as it does in India. Counting residents answers a different question from calculating the percentage of a country they represent. Pew’s country and regional estimates
What Canada published in 2022
In October 2022, Statistics Canada published religion results from its 2021 census. About 1.78 million people reported being Muslim, or 4.9 percent of the population covered by the results. In 2001 the share had been 2.0 percent. The 2022 date refers to publication, and the two census years define the twenty-year comparison. These data describe a national change in reported affiliation. They give no worldwide ranking of religions for the calendar year 2022. Statistics Canada’s October 2022 census release Statistics Canada’s Muslim population profile
Statistics Canada also reported that 63.1 percent of people who identified as Muslim in 2021 were immigrants, compared with 23.0 percent of the Canadian population. Among immigrants admitted from 2011 to 2021, 18.9 percent reported being Muslim. The first figure describes the makeup of the Muslim population at the time of the census. The second describes the religious affiliation of people admitted during a particular period. Their denominators answer two different questions about migration. Statistics Canada’s October 2022 census release
The census asks about affiliation regardless of whether a person practises the religion they name. The number therefore describes identification. A local question about demand for a service has a narrower scope. For instance, a city considering the location of a cemetery would need to know where people live, what arrangements local communities use and what families need. National figures provide a starting point for asking such questions, while community and neighbourhood information would guide a local decision. Statistics Canada’s October 2022 census release Statistics Canada’s Muslim population profile
What migration can change in Europe
A 2017 Pew study considered Europe as the 28 countries then in the European Union plus Norway and Switzerland. It estimated that Muslims were 4.9 percent of that population in mid-2016. The study then modelled three possible paths to 2050. Even in a scenario with no future migration, the estimated share increased to 7.4 percent because the Muslim population was younger and had higher fertility. That scenario isolates how the population might change through demographic patterns already present at the baseline. Pew’s 2017 European scenarios
In a second scenario, regular migration continued at the recent pace but future refugee flows stopped. The Muslim share reached 11.2 percent. In a third scenario, the unusually high refugee flows of 2014 to mid-2016 continued indefinitely alongside regular migration, yielding 14 percent. These are results under three sets of assumptions made in 2017. They illustrate how much the result can depend on which flows are assumed and for how long. Pew’s 2017 European scenarios
The European study also estimated that migration accounted for about 60 percent of the increase in its Muslim population between 2010 and mid-2016. That estimate describes an earlier period within the geography used by the study. Migration changes the population of a destination and the population of an origin. At the worldwide scale, births, deaths and changes in affiliation determine the overall number, while migration redistributes people among places. The same demographic event can therefore matter greatly in a city and have little direct effect on the global total. Pew’s 2017 European scenarios Pew’s explanation of migration and natural increase
Conclusion
The figures tell different stories at different scales. Canadian census data show a rise in reported Muslim affiliation over twenty years. The European scenarios show how future estimates respond to assumptions about migration and to the ages of people already living there. A useful comparison identifies its geography, its period and its measure. That makes it possible to distinguish the growth of a population from a change in where that population lives. Pew’s country and regional estimates Statistics Canada’s October 2022 census release Pew’s 2017 European scenarios
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